2026 Meat Outlook to see peaks, valleys

By Rachael Oatman

The global animal protein industry is set to experience a slowdown in production growth in 2026, according to a new report from RaboResearch, a business unit of Rabobank. The decline will be driven by cyclical factors, like shifts in North American and Brazilian cattle markets, as well as by structural factors, such as China’s efforts to rebalance its pork market.

Poultry and seafood are expected to be the shining stars in the coming year, as they will lead growth, while pork and beef production will contract. RaboResearch said the shifts will mark the first reduction in global meat production in six years.

U.S. farmers battle disease, herd management

Specifically, RaboResearch said pork production growth in North America will be constrained by disease and sow herd expansion, beef production will fall as the cow herd transitions from liquidation to rebuilding, and broiler production will grow due to lower feed costs.

“While we expect feed costs to remain steady, lower protein supplies, rising volatility and trade costs, and disease pressure will weigh on margins,” said Éva Gocsik, global strategist animal protein for RaboResearch. “In both mature and developing markets, a focus on increasing efficiency and productivity will be critical at the farm and processor level.”

The contraction of beef and pork supplies may prove challenging for consumer packaged goods companies like Hormel Foods Corp., Austin, Minn., and Conagra Brands, Inc., Chicago. In earnings released in early December, Hormel noted elevated beef and pork prices affected its fiscal 2025 results.

Sean Connolly, president and chief executive officer of Conagra Brands, said in October that the company’s core inflation outlook was 4 percent, but it had moved higher due to increased costs for animal proteins like beef, pork and turkey.

With global gross domestic product growth projected to decelerate, Gocsik predicted consumers will become increasingly price-sensitive, altering their consumption behaviors.

“Price pressures within animal protein categories may lead consumers to trade down or switch between proteins, while consumers seeking protein-rich foods will potentially boost animal protein demand,” she said.

Slight increase expected for red meat, poultry

In 2025, domestic availability of red meat, poultry, and eggs is projected to increase, driven by gains in chicken and pork availability, and is expected to rise further in 2026.

This increase is drawn from a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast of per capita supply available for use on the domestic market. Availability, also known as disappearance, serves as a proxy for consumption and includes fresh and processed meat and eggs sold through grocery stores and used in restaurants.

The latest USDA data indicate 226 pounds of red meat and poultry and about 22 dozen eggs are available per U.S. consumer in 2025. By 2026, per capita availability is forecast to increase to 227 pounds for red meat and poultry and to 23 dozen eggs.

For chicken, per capita availability of broiler meat has been growing for many years and is projected to reach 102.7 pounds in 2025 and 102.8 pounds in 2026, making it the most consumed animal product in the United States. Availability of turkey, by comparison, has been falling in recent years and is projected to reach a low of 13.0 pounds per person in 2025 but increase to 13.6 pounds in 2026.

Per capita beef availability for 2025 is projected to be slightly lower than 2024 at 58.5 pounds, but is projected to decrease further to 56.9 pounds per person in 2026. Pork availability per capita is projected at 49.7 pounds in 2025 and 50.9 pounds in 2026, up from 49.9 pounds in 2024. Per capita table egg availability for 2025 is projected at 21.5 dozen and is projected to increase to 22.9 dozen per person in 2026. 

Seeking balance amid uncertainty

Animal protein trade remains resilient despite disruptions, according to RaboResearch. Strategic front-loading, including shipments of Brazilian beef into the United States, have helped sustain volumes amid volatility and shifting tariffs. As geopolitical tensions and policies evolve, new trade agreements may provide a boost.

Animal diseases will continue to impact trade, squeeze margins and pressure productivity. An outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in Spain in November showed signs of shifting trade flows as well as continued cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza. Combined with emerging diseases like New World screwworm and Bluetongue, the headwinds are driving greater biosecurity measures and increased focus on managing disease pressures, RaboResearch pointed out.

As the industry seeks to mitigate risks, technology adoption is becoming more prevalent. Artificial intelligence offers potential benefits for managing operational risks and advancing sustainability goals. However, RaboResearch noted investment remains weak.“Maintaining consumer trust is paramount,” Gocsik said. “In times of heightened risk, consumers continue to prioritize animal welfare, supply availability, price, food safety and quality, and these demands are driving advancements in transparency and traceability.” 

Story via https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/